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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still