Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
